Predict

package
v0.0.0-...-58fb9df Latest Latest
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 Go to latest Published: Nov 1, 2018 License: MIT Imports: 22 Imported by: 0

Documentation

Index

Constants

This section is empty.

Variables

View Source 
var (
	// Pre-computed in historical_optimize.go
	INCUMBENT_ADVANTAGE_PVI = 0.017291230141716508 // Average margin advantage to incumbent over what PVI would expect
	FUNDRAISING_MULTIPLIER  = 0.023715954257800112 // Gain to generic ballot per doubling of fundraising over your opponent
	PAST_PVI_WEIGHT         = 0.25506964600999965  // Weight of previous PVI in PVI calculation
	OVERALL_PVI_WEIGHT      = 0.270927780068467    // Weight of generic ballot average in PVI calculation
	FUNDAMENTALS_WEIGHT     = 22.90325456831519    // Multiplier to beta/dirichlet params for fundamentals margin in forecast. Larger means more confident
)
View Source 
var (
	// Pre-computed in historical_optimize.go
	RAND_POLL_SHIFT  = 0.017280740746056285  // Base per-poll error
	DAILY_POLL_SHIFT = 0.0026921961074848465 // Per-day per-poll average drift
	POLLING_WEIGHT   = 0.7995439702676344    // Multiplier to beta/dirichlet params for polling average in forecast. Larger means more confident
)
View Source 
var (
	// Pre-computed in historical_optimize.go
	RAND_NATIONAL_SHIFT  = 0.036811891821249415   // Base national error
	DAILY_NATIONAL_SHIFT = 1.0850935968504596e-05 // Per-day average national drift
	RAND_RACE_SHIFT      = 0.028265923390389497   // Base per-race error
	DAILY_RACE_SHIFT     = 1.2133332224145488e-05 // Per-day per-race average drift

	N = 1 << 22 // Number of race simulations. Can go lower without much loss of accuracy, or higher if you want.
)
View Source 
var Senate2016results = map[string][2]float64{
	"AL": {748709, 1335104},
	"AK": {36200, 138149},
	"AZ": {1031245, 1359267},
	"AR": {400602, 661984},
	"CA": {7542753, 4701417},
	"CO": {1370710, 1215318},
	"CT": {1008714, 552621},
	"FL": {4122088, 4835191},
	"GA": {1599726, 2135806},
	"HI": {306604, 92653},
	"ID": {188249, 449017},
	"IL": {3012940, 2184692},
	"IN": {1158947, 1423991},
	"IA": {549460, 926007},
	"KS": {379740, 732376},
	"KY": {813246, 1090177},
	"LA": {578750, 984625},
	"MD": {1659907, 972557},
	"MO": {1300200, 1378458},
	"NV": {521994, 495079},
	"NH": {354649, 353632},
	"NY": {5221945, 2009335},
	"NC": {2128165, 2395376},
	"ND": {58116, 268788},
	"OH": {1996908, 3118567},
	"OK": {355911, 980892},
	"OR": {1105119, 651106},
	"PA": {2865012, 2951702},
	"SC": {757022, 1241609},
	"SD": {104125, 265494},
	"UT": {301860, 760241},
	"VT": {192243, 103637},
	"WA": {745421, 381004},
	"WI": {1380335, 1479471},
}

Functions

func AdjustRaceError 

func AdjustRaceError(alpha, beta, days float64) (a, b float64)

func CombinePolls 

func CombinePolls(polling_data []map[string][]Poll) map[string][]Poll

func CombineRatings 

func CombineRatings(rating_data []map[string][2]float64, weights []float64) map[string][2]float64

func GetBetasFromPVIs 

func GetBetasFromPVIs(pvis map[string]float64) map[string][2]float64

func GetConcentrationParams 

func GetConcentrationParams(polls []Poll, parties map[string]string, electionDate time.Time) map[string]float64

func GetPollWeights 

func GetPollWeights(polls []Poll, parties map[string]string, electionDate time.Time, divUsed bool) []float64

func GetPollingRatings 

func GetPollingRatings(polls map[string][]Poll, election_date time.Time) map[string][2]float64

func LoadExperts 

func LoadExperts(ftype string, E *RaceMapExperts) (error, time.Time)

func LoadForecast 

func LoadForecast(ftype string, F *Forecast) (error, time.Time)

func LoadFundamentals 

func LoadFundamentals(ftype string, F *RaceFundamentals) (error, time.Time)

func LoadHistoricalData 

func LoadHistoricalData() (polls []map[string][]Poll, results []map[string][2]float64, electionDates []time.Time, experts_ratings [][]map[string][2]float64, incumbents []map[string]string, expert_pvis [][]map[string]float64, fundraising []map[string]float64, elasticities []map[string]float64)

func LoadPolls 

func LoadPolls(ftype string, P *RaceMapPolls) (error, time.Time)

func LoadPollsWeightBias 

func LoadPollsWeightBias()

func LoadPollsWeightBiasCustom 

func LoadPollsWeightBiasCustom()

Not used

func MergePolls 

func MergePolls(A, B []Poll) []Poll

func MergeRaces 

func MergeRaces(races map[string]struct{}, unchallenged_races [2]map[string]struct{}, ratings map[string]map[string][2]float64, election_date, now time.Time) (r map[string][2]float64, sources map[string]map[string][2]float64)

func MergeRatings 

func MergeRatings(rating_data []map[string][2]float64) map[string][2]float64

Same as CombineRatings but no weights

func OptimizeHistorical 

func OptimizeHistorical()

func OptimizeNationalShift 

func OptimizeNationalShift()

func OptimizePVIs 

func OptimizePVIs()

func OptimizePollShift 

func OptimizePollShift()

func OptimizeRaceShift 

func OptimizeRaceShift()

func OptimizeSources 

func OptimizeSources()

func Prob 

func Prob(races map[string][2]float64, days, rw float64) ([]float64, map[string]RaceProbability)

func SaveExperts 

func SaveExperts(name string, experts RaceMapExperts)

func SaveForecast 

func SaveForecast(name string, forecast Forecast)

func SaveFundamentals 

func SaveFundamentals(name string, fundamentals RaceFundamentals)

func SavePolls 

func SavePolls(name string, polls RaceMapPolls)

Types

type Expert 

type Expert struct {
	Expert              string             `json:"expert"`
	ConcentrationParams map[string]float64 `json:"concentration_params"`
	Weight              float64            `json:"weight"`
}

func (Expert) Compare 

func (A Expert) Compare(B Expert) bool

type Experts 

type Experts []Expert

func (Experts) GetText 

func (E Experts) GetText(name string) []string

func (Experts) Len 

func (E Experts) Len() int

func (Experts) Less 

func (E Experts) Less(i, j int) bool

func (Experts) Swap 

func (E Experts) Swap(i, j int)

type Forecast 

type Forecast struct {
	ShortForecast
	DemSeatsLow       int                        `json:"dem_seats_lo"`
	DemSeatsHigh      int                        `json:"dem_seats_hi"`
	RaceProbabilities map[string]RaceProbability `json:"race_probabilities"`
	SeatProbabilities []SeatProbability          `json:"seat_probabilities"`
	Past              []ShortForecast            `json:"past"`
}

func GenForecast 

func GenForecast(seats []float64, rp map[string]RaceProbability, past Forecast, now time.Time) Forecast

func (Forecast) GetText 

func (F Forecast) GetText(name string) []string

type Fundamental 

type Fundamental struct {
	StepName string  `json:"step_name"`
	Value    float64 `json:"value"`
	Weight   float64 `json:"weight"`
}

type Fundamentals 

type Fundamentals []Fundamental

func (Fundamentals) GetText 

func (F Fundamentals) GetText(name string) []string

type MapExperts 

type MapExperts map[string]Expert

func (MapExperts) GetText 

func (E MapExperts) GetText(name string) []string

type Polls 

type Polls []Poll

func (Polls) GetText 

func (P Polls) GetText(name string) []string

func (Polls) Len 

func (P Polls) Len() int

func (Polls) Less 

func (P Polls) Less(i, j int) bool

func (Polls) Swap 

func (P Polls) Swap(i, j int)

type RaceFundamentals 

type RaceFundamentals map[string]Fundamentals

func GetFundamentalsRatings 

func GetFundamentalsRatings(incumbents map[string]string, fundraising_ratios map[string]float64, pvi_estimates []map[string]float64, pvi_weights []float64, pvi_names []string, elasticities map[string]float64, overall_pvi float64) (map[string][2]float64, RaceFundamentals)

type RaceMapExperts 

type RaceMapExperts map[string]MapExperts

func CombineExpertRatings 

func CombineExpertRatings(rating_data []map[string][2]float64, weights []float64, names []string) (map[string][2]float64, RaceMapExperts)

type RaceMapPolls 

type RaceMapPolls map[string][]Poll

func (RaceMapPolls) GetText 

func (P RaceMapPolls) GetText(name string) []string

type RacePoll 

type RacePoll struct {
	Poll
	Race string `json:"race"`
}

type RacePolls 

type RacePolls []RacePoll

func (RacePolls) GetText 

func (P RacePolls) GetText(name string) []string

func (RacePolls) Len 

func (P RacePolls) Len() int

func (RacePolls) Less 

func (P RacePolls) Less(i, j int) bool

func (RacePolls) Swap 

func (P RacePolls) Swap(i, j int)

type RaceProbabilities 

type RaceProbabilities []RaceProbability

func (RaceProbabilities) Len 

func (R RaceProbabilities) Len() int

func (RaceProbabilities) Less 

func (R RaceProbabilities) Less(i, j int) bool

func (RaceProbabilities) Swap 

func (R RaceProbabilities) Swap(i, j int)

type RaceProbability 

type RaceProbability struct {
	ShortRaceProbability
	Race    string                 `json:"race"`
	Sources map[string][2]float64  `json:"sources"`
	Past    []ShortRaceProbability `json:"past,omitempty"`
}

func (*RaceProbability) Fix 

func (R *RaceProbability) Fix(sources map[string][2]float64)

func (RaceProbability) GetText 

func (R RaceProbability) GetText(name string) []string

type SeatProbabilities 

type SeatProbabilities []SeatProbability

func (SeatProbabilities) Len 

func (S SeatProbabilities) Len() int

func (SeatProbabilities) Less 

func (S SeatProbabilities) Less(i, j int) bool

func (SeatProbabilities) Swap 

func (S SeatProbabilities) Swap(i, j int)

type SeatProbability 

type SeatProbability struct {
	DemSeats    int     `json:"dem_seats"`
	Probability float64 `json:"probability"`
}

type ShortForecast 

type ShortForecast struct {
	Date                   time.Time `json:"date"`
	DemMajorityProbability float64   `json:"dem_maj_prob"`
	DemSeatsExpected       float64   `json:"dem_seats_exp"`
}

type ShortRaceProbability 

type ShortRaceProbability struct {
	Date                time.Time          `json:"date"`
	DemWinProbability   float64            `json:"dem_win_prob"`
	DemVoteExpected     float64            `json:"dem_vote_exp"`
	DemVoteLow          float64            `json:"dem_vote_lo"`
	DemVoteHigh         float64            `json:"dem_vote_hi"`
	ConcentrationParams map[string]float64 `json:"concentration_params"`
}

Source Files

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